Residential vacancies, ownership and new construction in an earthquake region: Taiwan, 1982-2010

in International Symposium (oral presentation paper), 國際研討會(全文口頭發表)
標題Residential vacancies, ownership and new construction in an earthquake region: Taiwan, 1982-2010
AuthorsHenry H.Y. Hsieh, 謝惠元, & Forster F.
會議名稱The Proceedings of The Annual International Conference on Finance, Accounting, Investment, and Risk Management 2015
出版日期Jun 20 2015 12:0

Vacancies are usually considered in terms of short-run, rental housing markets, with structural vacancies associated with run-down local physical environments. However, nations can have such persistently high and spatially widespread vacancy rates that this is misleading. Taiwan has not only had a national vacancy rate that has been high for decades, but residential construction continues, and residential purchase prices rise in real terms. An explanation and a model consistent with these phenomena is the challenge for empirical modelling. For Taiwan the mass of total vacancies is interpreted as structural and imperfectly habitable units but having little housing market impact. Physically Taiwanese dwelling units are overwhelmingly urban, high-density and high-rise, with over eighty-five per cent of occupants being owners. Underlying this is a close relationship between construction and the housing market, with the impact of continually evolving earthquake construction codes considered critical. An aggregate model is estimated using two-stage least-squares on pooled cross-section time-series data for 23 cities and counties annually covering all Taiwan for 1982-2010. Interpretation of the model’s results suggests that implicit improvements in new unit completions help raise real prices, and is consistent with completions forcing older but habitable units off the market into structural vacancies.

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